Your Questions About Poker Odds Straight Flush
Mandy asks…
huntch or?
Something came to me when I was going to the small Indian Casino yesterday. The odds of it happening were so far out that I kept quiet…It was that the power would go out and electricity would be cut off.
The second was that I would be delt a straight flush in a poker game.
Both happenned. I knew it would, but somehow sensed it.
Odd?
The straight flush was a Pai Gow game that paid 50-1 odds.
admin answers:
Dunnno
Betty asks…
Poker hand odds!!!!!!?
We know if you are drawing an open ended straight with the turn and river to come your chances of hitting are about 32% .. ish. We also know that if you have a flush draw with two spades on the flop and two spades in your hand your chances of hitting are about 36% …… ish. Both of these are roughly like one in every three times you hit your hand right?? Is there any point then in thinking a long time about a call when your chances are 1 in 3 no matter how much you have invested in the pot and you know that there is a decent chance of hitting. I mean sure there might be a huge investment already and calling would set you back a nice bit but that is your own fault for chasing a draw in the first place is it not??
admin answers:
First of all, the [Outs*4] formula is only useful in two scenarios: either you’re pretty sure your opponent will check to turn, or one of you is all-in on the flop so it’s guaranteed you won’t have to face a bet on the turn. Both of those cases are rare, so the vast majority of the time you won’t be using the percentages you said, you’ll be using the percentage for the draw to come on the very next card. On the flop, the chance of it coming on the turn is [Outs * 2.13]. On the turn it’s [Outs * 2.17].
You should only chase draws when it’s mathematically correct to do so. If the math is wrong then yes it’s your „fault“ for chasing a draw. But if the math is right then it’s your fault for NOT chasing the draw.
Figuring out your pot odds is the simple part, if that were the only thing to think about then yes every decision with a draw would be an easy call/fold. However, usually people’s bets are bigger than 1/3 or 1/4 the pot, so you rarely have the right pot odds to chase. You then have to think about implied odds. Implied odds aren’t as simple as pot odds because they’re not an exact science, it’s mainly guesswork. You have to decide your opponent’s range of hands and how much he’s likely to pay you with those hands if you do hit your draw.
Implied odds usually don’t take long either, but there’s still more to think about. Often semi-bluffing is the more profitable move. You have to decide how likely he is to fold, how you’d follow it up and what the right bet amounts would be. And it’s not just going with your first hunch, you have to do more read-based calculations (see the literature pertaining to „fold equity“). Also, of the percentage in which he doesn’t fold, how likely is he to raise/reraise?
Everything I’ve said applies to cash games. In tournaments it’s probably even trickier because the chips aren’t money and when you run out of them, it’s all over. If chasing a draw will halve your chipstack if you miss, you have to decide if that risk is worth it compared to the amount of chips you’ll have if you hit and win the pot. So the math isn’t always the same as in cash games.
In conclusion, most poker decisions take some time if what you’re seeking is the OPTIMUM decision. Of course it only takes a split second to make a donkey move, which is why donkeys tend to play rapidly. To donkeys poker is easy, and it’s not because they’re cocky, it’s because losing is easy to do in any game. It’s harder to think of the winning moves than the losing moves. If I were playing blitz chess, my moves would tend to suck. It takes a lot of practice to combine strength AND speed, in just about any game besides tic-tac-toe. Poker is no different, I’m still trying to get faster myself. If for no other reason than so that I no longer have to hear donkeys reminding me that „we’re not on TV you know“.
Daniel asks…
Poker players on high stakes making bad decisions?
I was watching high stakes poker and the famous Phil Helmuth wanted insurance on a pot he was all in with….which means he wanted to pay close to the proper pot odds of him being beat
he had 44 the other guy had 32 flop 4510….no flush draws involved
So helmuth asked around the table what are the odds of him losing…and none of them knew…and Jamie Gold whos a mathmatician said between 50% and 33%
helmuth ended up accepting the 33% and threw in an extra 5% to the guy insuring him
now here i am…not a mathamatician but im thinking they all totally out of their minds
straight draw odds are like 31.5% but the fact that the Phil had a set means u have to subtract the odds of the board pairing by the river which is 5%…so the real odds of him losing are 26%, which means helmuth should have only paid the 26% plus an extra 5% to cover the guy insuring the pot…so he over paid by 8% which is at least like 13k for a pot around 180k
admin answers:
If you remember back to the early broadcasts of the 2007 WSOP, (the non-main event tourneys,) Phil got into a long string of bets with Phil Ivey as to whether or not Phil H’s hands would hold up. Phil I. Kept giving him odds that were completely wrong (and knowing they were) and Phil H kept accepting them. I really don’t think Phil H’s pot-odds math is that good, he just does it for bluster and because he’s an arrogant prick (this IS Phil Hellmuth, after all.) Phil usually just plays his cards (notice how often he’ll fold to raises) and wins based on knowing their strength. He’s never been much on draws.
Helen asks…
Rarer than a Royal Flush?
9 of us were playing poker last night, and we had a round which was apparently unbelievable!
My friend ended up with : A2345 all diamond (very good already)
Then.. I smacked down an : 6 of diamonds, making 2 straight flush’s in one round, and mine obviously beating his!
A friend said this could be rarer than a royal flush!
Is he right?
If not… what are the odds??
Cheers! Jack H
admin answers:
Royal flush is approximately 679,000-1 against if you draw five random cards from a deck. In a six-player Texas Holdem game a royal flush is gonna occur about once every 12,000 hands (that’s because you play with seven cards). I don’t know the exact probability of a 4-card straight flush on board with two players holding matching cards, but it’s definitely going to be way smaller than this.
Steven asks…
Is this a bad call in texas holdem poker?
Is this a bad call in texas holdem poker?
i had Ace of diomands and Ace of hearts
flop dealt
Ace Spades, 4 spades, K clubs,
one person bet $1000, i had $25,000 to play with
i called because i had trip aces
turn card was Ace Clubs(yeah i know what are the odds) so i betted $1,000 trying to lure other player in with low bets to trick him
then river was 2 spades
leabing house cards with
Ace spades, 4 spades, K clubs, Ace clubs and 2 spades
so i went all in because i knew quad aces are hard to beat.
but he had 3 and 5 spades giving him straight flush.
should i have seen that coming and not have gone all in with quad aces or should i have gone all in seein as straight flushes are really hard.
so the Q is did i make a bad call.
BTW dont worry i got most me money back. it wasnt real money it was on PKR fake money. but still was it a good call knowing the 600,000 to 1 odd risk
yes i did raise preflop
i always raise preflop if i have pocket royal cards
such as QQ,KK,JJ,AA
lol i still cant get over the fact he got straight flush. it is so unbelevable.lol it was a good game anyway
admin answers:
When you have „the nuts“ you go all in…and you didn’t…end of story…you let the person get there
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